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On the SPOT blog (12/12/2022) [P..]

Updated: Dec 13, 2022

Markets seemed to show some optimism today about the major economic data that is due tomorrow (the key CPI data) and the day after tomorrow (FOMC's key interest rate decision). All three major indices finished the day in green today after dismal previous week.

Today, let's revisit Procter & Gamble (ticker PG) because it is one of my favorite stocks in consumer staples sector and seems to be in the premium zone. We discussed the premise of having PG in my watchlist here so let me skip over straight to gScores for trading insights.

PG's overall gScore today is -0.54 and micro-gScores are as listed below:

Price

3/10

RSI

-10/10

Bollinger Bands

-10/10

MACD

-5/10

KF

-7/10

OLS

-10/10

MFI

-3/10

Stochastic

-5/5

Options data

2/10

Analysts' recommendations

-4/10

Sentiments score

-5/5

  • Price micro-gScore is somewhat low. Price rose today and the number of consecutive days that it has been rising is still in the bottom quantile. Current price appears to be in the middle quantile of its 52-week range

  • RSI is showing overbought level and rising. The number of days in overbought level appears to be in the top quantile

  • Current price appears to be near its upper Bollinger band

  • MACD showed buy signal when the price was $127.34. The number of days in this +ve trend appears to be in the top quantile

  • KF is showing that current price is well above its "filtered" average

  • OLS model is showing that its 1Y LS line has a -ve slope and its 5Y LS line has a +ve slope. Current price appears to be significantly above its 1Y "expected" average and well below its 5Y "expected" average

  • MFI is showing above average level and falling

  • Stochastic is showing overbought level

  • Options data looks mixed in that its short ratio (<2) is very healthy but its calls/puts activity with respect to current price appears to be bearish

  • Analysts' recommendations is somewhat -ve

  • Sentiment score is -ve

So, PG appears to be trading at a premium. It seems to have had a nice run recently so if I'm in it for the short-term (if I don't want to hold it for the next year's recession fears) then I'd hold it at least until seeing it fall for two consecutive days or some news showing -ve market sentiment (e.g. CPI news or interest rate news). If I'm in it for the long-term then I don't mind holding it as it could participate in the Santa rally and if there is no Santa rally then I still wouldn't mind holding it for multiple years. If I sell then 'd consider getting back in when the gScore is discounted and if economic conditions haven't worsened. You would obviously decide for yourself.

Below are the technical analysis charts for PG as generated by Gammath™ SPOT:



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