I checked the markets this morning and thought of writing the blog while the US markets are still open. Carnage on Wall Street continued this morning presumably in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hike later this week (on Wednesday). I think rate hike of at least 0.5 is a near certainty and the probability of rate hike of > 0.5 has increased following the dismal CPI/inflation data from last week. General consensus seems to be that Feds are somewhat behind the curve on curbing inflation and investors expect aggressive QT and rate hikes this year. If the Biden administration manages to bring down oil prices and somewhat streamline supply chain issues then I think we will start gaining confidence in possibility of "soft landing".
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