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On the SPOT™ blog (06/29/2023) [M..]

This morning (PST) all three major US indices are in the green. Big banks passed the stress test that suggests that they would be fine even in case of a serious recession. Besides, at the moment, the economy seems to be in a good shape. Q1 GDP number got revised to a higher number. Last week's unemployment claims fell. Essentially, it looks like it would be harder to bring inflation back to the targeted 2% level. The likelihood of Feds raising interest rate in July seems to have gotten higher (remains to be seen how inflation is doing before the meeting). At least, it makes the "soft landing" likelihood higher.

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