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On the SPOT™ blog (12/14/2023) [L..]

This morning all three major US indices are in the green perhaps as a response to +ve economic news. Feds held the rates steady and signalled 3 rate cuts next year after they noted that economic activity had slowed substantially compared to Q3 but still expect economy to expand 2.5% for the full year. The langauge seems to suggest that Feds might be at or close to the end of tighetening cycle as there was mention that committe would consider multiple factors for any more tightening. Chairman's coments seem to convey cautious optimism as he mentioned that raising rates isn't taken off the table and that inflation has cooled without damaging the labor market which was good news but inflation was still high and future is uncertain so success is not guaranteed so not yet declaring victory. This morning's economic data showed that retail sales ticked up in November and the number was above estimates. Last week's initial unemployment claims also seem to have dropped. Treasury yields slipped as well. In general, soft landing probability has increased and Santa rally seems likely (as opposed to certainty).

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